A slight bit of pain today, but sticking with my short term bearish thesis

I exchanged the last of the leveraged Rydex bullish funds for bearish funds. Plus I added a tad more to the RYCWX.

I still think there is a slim chance the market could break out to the upside. But, I am much more convinced a pull back will happen.

One concern I have, is I don't have in mind any scenario that takes me out of the bear funds until we have some slight correction. The good news from that standpoint is I have a strong enough bullish position in other funds to blunt the pain short of an all out rally.

Best of luck to you!

As always do your own due diligence and make your own decisions. No one knows for certain what tomorrow will bring. Only you can be responsible for your own decisions. I may hold bullish and/or bearish positions without warning and these may change without warning. This is only a part of my investment portfolio. This information is to help me understand my evolving decision process and for education or entertainment of others as desired.

Interim Score Card

I am pleased as punch!!!!!

YTD Annualized based on YTD
DIA 6% 31%
SPY 5% 28%
QQQQ 2% 12%
MDY 6% 33%
VB 10% 57%

Rydex 12% 75% based on gain/(final value -gain)
17% 117% based on gain/(initial value + one half additions)

Gain = final value - (initial value + additions)

To get these gains, 122 mutual fund exchanges were completed YTD. At TDWaterhouse there is no charge for exchanges. I have no idea of what other brokers do in this regard.

This strategy removes single stock risk. It provides the ability to make money in up and down markets. My gain last year for the Rydex equity strategy was 52%. This is the third year I have been trading these funds with 200% leverage to the DJIA, SPY, and QQQQ.


Best of luck to you!

As always do your own due diligence and make your own decisions. No one knows for certain what tomorrow will bring. Only you can be responsible for your own decisions. I may hold bullish and/or bearish positions without warning and these may change without warning. This is only a part of my investment portfolio. This information is to help me understand my evolving decision process and for education or entertainment of others as desired.

The Semi's are weak and until they are well, I am getting more bearish

The semis are weak and I think will undermine this rally. I don't think the telecom's can overcome them, but I could be very wrong.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=smh&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p53930487504

Moved half the remaining way into RYVNX and RYTPX and added to a tad to RYCWX. Plus picked up some April puts on the QQQQ's and May on the SPY's. Liquidated about 2% of the long positions in my account. Hanging on to energy,
gold, silver, plus AVII.

Should have a nice gain on my RYVNX today. But AVII was painful.

Still on my short countdown clock for another market decline.

I still think we will be signficantly lower by mid April ($SPX 1230-1180), but there is a slim chance this market could breakout for a real rally. My technical indicators aren't saying that though. Time will tell.

As always do your own due diligence and make your own decisions. No one knows for certain what tomorrow will bring. Only you can be responsible for your own decisions. I may hold bullish and/or bearish positions without warning and these may change without warning.

The real purpose of these notes is to help me understand why I make the moves I make. Looking back I hope to understand what worked and what didn't. Life is a real learning experience with real money, real bodies, real consequences, and real rewards.

Taking a trip to the bearish side, but understand the bull could break loose!

It looks like my idea that the market was going higher, was not a head fake. The moves I made in the Rydex to the bullish side kept my Rydex losses down. These Rydex positions are to some degree to provide protection to the larger long portion of my portfolio. Unless the market is in a long term uptrend, I don't try to capture all the gains with the Rydex portion. When the market turns to the downside, I really try to make profits with these Rydex investments to stop the losses from long term positions. I have a few mutual funds that are closed and have no intention of leaving strong performers behind me for a short term loss protection. Therefore, this gives me the protection of principal I need.

I clearly did not move bullish enough and did feel some pain in the RYVNX. When you go down twice as fast as then market goes up and the market goes up it can hurt in a hurry!

My current Rydex position is, after shifting to a slightly more market bearish posture tonight:

69% DIA: RYCWX (2v) 100%, RYCVX (2^) 0%
20% S&P: RYTPX (2v) 76%, RYTNX (2^) 24%
11% QQQQ: RYVNX (2v) 87%, RYVYX (2^) 13%

This represents about 16% of my portfolio.

Cash is about 9% and RYWBX(short the USD) is 2.3%.

On the 10th, I said within 7 trading days I would be turning bearish. I made my first move bearish yesterday, and a larger one today. I think we are probably within 4 days of a short term top.

I still think we will be signficantly lower by mid April, but there is a chance this market could breakout for a real rally. My technical indicators aren't saying that though. Time will tell.

As always do your own due diligence and make your own decisions. No one knows for certain what tomorrow will bring. Only you can be responsible for your own decisions. I may hold bullish and/or bearish positions without warning and these may change without warning.

The real purpose of these notes is to help me understand why I make the moves I make. Looking back I hope to understand what worked and what didn't. Life is a real learning experience with real money, real bodies, real consequences, and real rewards.

I may be head faked, but too many bears too fast

My current Rydex position is, after shifting to a slightly more market bullish posture tonight:

DIA: RYCWX (2v) 100%, RYCVX (2^) 0%
S&P: RYTPX (2v) 57%, RYTNX (2^) 43%
QQQQ: RYVNX (2v) 68%, RYVYX (2^) 32%

If I hadn't run out of time, I would have shifted the RYCWX along the lines I went on the RYTPX. It isn't clear, but I think a little bitty rally could happen here. COULD is operative. I am not sure.

1) Too many are quickly jumping in the bear camp.
2) Look at a chart of the $RHNDX, notice the Record high percentage was just near 0! When this happened in September 2005 and February 2006, a 3% rally followed in the NASDAQ 100. A 3% rally would cause a 6% decline in RYVNX! OUCH!!!!

So I am moving to a more neutral position to avoid losses. I will let my other long positions work to capture the gains. I will be surprised, if I am not shifting to a more bearish position in 7 trading days more or less.

As always do your own due diligence and make your own decisions. No one knows for certain what tomorrow will bring. Only you can be responsible for your own decisions. I may hold bullish and/or bearish positions without warning and these may change without warning.

The real purpose of these notes is to help me understand why I make the moves I make. Looking back I hope to understand what worked and what didn't. Life is a real learning experience with real money, real bodies, real consequences, and real rewards.

Bearish, but wavering very short term!

I have become fairly bearish. I am still holding many long term bullish positions, but have moved all my Rydex positions to bearish positions with the 200% inverse funds. I am closely watching and could be moving towards neutral or bullish very soon, maybe even today.

Currently as a % of total portfolio:
RYVNX 11.6%
RYTPX 3.2%
RYCWX 1.8%

I have an idea mid April could deliver $SPX 1230-1180. This could well present a buying opportunity. Most will be screaming SELL, SELL, SELL!!!! And when everything looks blackest, buyers are often rewarded! But, I will be looking at a lot of other indicators to see, if I think buying is warranted.

My October 20, 2005 post describes some of these.

I am fairly bullish on the oil sector right now! Only about 40% of the charts are bullish. The last 2 times the percentages were that low, were great buying opportunities!

And short the USD via:
RYWBX 2.3% This has been a painful position. And as the USD has broken a 3 year bear trend is very questionable.

Cash 9%

Best of luck to you!

As always do your own due diligence and make your own decisions. No one knows for certain what tomorrow will bring. Only you can be responsible for your own decisions. I may hold bullish and/or bearish positions without warning and these may change without warning. This is only a small part of my investment portfolio.