I have divergent indications, but am moving short term bearish

An indicator with an 86% accuracy record at signaling buys in the past 7 years says the S&P is a buy!

But there are numerous key resistance levels that must be taken out to go higher. I am assuming a short term failure is slightly more likely than a success. Therefore I am going to a mildly bearish posture on my Rydex positions.

I should have about 45% bullish 55% bearish balance with a much larger percentage tied to the QQQQ, followed by roughly equal amounts tied to the S&P and DIA.

Some of the raw notes I made in making this decision:
Nasdaq stalling at the top of the downturn channel.
DJIA stalling at a sloped resistance line.
Summation index turning up, bullish.
S&P stalling right on horizontal resistance.
NYSE record high percentage index at highs last seen in beginning 06 and in Sep 05!!
Divergence between NYSE ADV-DEC and NASD ADV-DEC.

Of course yesterday faked me out as I expected spinning tops in multiple indexes and that wasn’t to be.

Best of luck to you!

As always do your own due diligence and make your own decisions. No one knows for certain what tomorrow will bring. Only you can be responsible for your own decisions. I may hold bullish and/or bearish positions without warning and these may change without warning. This is only a small part of my investment portfolio.

okay, I am moving to only slightly bullish

The DJIA, S&P, and the Nasdaq both are close to doing spinning tops today. The best news of the day, is that the NYSE is haaving a pretty good day. This was a big concern. A 5 day RSI model with a sell point of 50 is signaling sell, not a very good model, because it leaves you out on big run ups. I am not expecting a big run up. The S&P and Nasdaq is right at resistance. February 20 is Presidents' Day, a trading holiday.

Therefore I am moving to a much less bullish posture. I will have a 53% bullish, 47% bearish tommorrow. Depending on what happens tommorrow, another shift would not be unlikely. No clue to which way.

See prior disclaimers.

Whiplash resolved?

The market feels likely to go a bit higher. I am not changing my positions, but will be watching for any sign of a crack. When the crack happens, it is likely to be brutal again. With options expiration this week, that is a concern. Another concern is the fact that the Nasdaq Composite and the New York Stock Exchange Indexes have had little rally as compared to the DJIA. These should come together soon and that may determine the direction. I would be surprised, if there is a lot of upside, but must play the cards as I see them.

Whiplash rally?

I was really hoping to have 3-5 days more on the down side, as painful as it would be, to set up for a pretty good rally point. It appears that I will not get them at the moment.

I have shifted to 63% bullish, 37% bearish on my Rydex equity funds. Except for the smaller amount leveraged to the DJIA, I shifted to 100% bullish.

I will be surprised, if we don't peak in a several days. And I think it is possible we could continue the downward trend sooner.

I have a couple of indicators I use to make decisions along with a great flux of other information. They say shift, so I will shift. They are not without the ability to get it wrong or cause whiplash!

Best of luck to you!

As always do your own due diligence and make your own decisions. No one knows for certain what tomorrow will bring. Only you can be responsible for your own decisions. I may hold bullish and/or bearish positions without warning and these may change without warning. This is only a small part of my investment portfolio.

Pressing the bearish bet

Pullbacks are normal and to be expected. Every few months except in the earliest part of a strong bull market, a pullback of a few percent should be expected. Will this turn into more than that. I have no idea. I would not be surprised to see a correction (10% or more) happen this year. And even that can happen without starting a new bear market. Only time will tell what will happen for sure!

I just added 1/3 to my RYVNX position. I am pressing my bets on this. Though, we COULD be near a bottom. Today has shown some recoveries from the low. The final hour may tell us more. Nothing suggests to me that we are near a "significant" bottom. Monday may be third down day and that will put a mite more caution in my thinking. There have been very hard snap back rallies at the beginning of December and January. These may be due to 401k, IRA, and other monthly funds entering the market. If that is the case, it appears we are past that point and the present decline would have been much worse without that money introduction.

The downside investments -12%: RYVNX –9%, RYTPX-2%, RYCWX-1%. The declining dollar investment – RYWBX -5%
Cash – 9%
A mutual fund that hedges against declines – HGSFX- 2%
Precious metal mutual fund – 1%
Other mutual funds – 26%
Equity positions-58%

Unlike many, the future of the market seems very unclear to me so far! Therefore, I must play the cards I see or FEEL. I am not at all sure I have objective data for the moves.

Best of luck to you!

As always do your own due diligence and make your own decisions. No one knows for certain what tomorrow will bring. Only you can be responsible for your own decisions. I may hold bullish and/or bearish positions without warning and these may change without warning. This is only a small part of my investment portfolio.

Still bearish

Yesterday and today, I moved more cash to the bearish side, adding to RYVNX and RYTPX.

I have no real reason to suspect a big decline, but wouldn't rule out a pain causer!
We haven't seen any pain to speak of since September. I will now be watching when to flip towards bullish and in this market it could happen fast. But I think not so fast this time. If it does I ma have to buy some QQQQ to neutralize the bearish funds till I can flip them.

My portfolio looks like this at the moment:
Cash 10%
Double inverse bear market funds, primairly RYVNX 9%
Double inverse bear US Dollar funds, RYWBX 5%
Mutual Funds 17%
Stocks 59%

In the stock and mutual funds, there is a weighting to oil/Natural gas(12%), gold/silver(11%), uranium(3%), and biotech(22%). Two of the mutual funds have the ability to go short the market.

In some respects my portfolio could be viewed as being closer to a 25% or greater cash position.

This years gains, have exceeded last years and I want to protect some, but conitnue to participate in the rally, if it continues.

Unlike many, the future of the market seems very unclear to me so far! Therefore, I must play the cards I see or FEEL. I am not at all sure I have objective data for the moves.

Best of luck to you!

As always do your own due diligence and make your own decisions. No one knows for certain what tomorrow will bring. Only you can be responsible for your own decisions. I may hold bullish and/or bearish positions without warning and these may change without warning. This is only a small part of my investment portfolio.