Moving bearish here

Sorry, posts are few and far between.

I have closed all Rydex positions that suggest the market might go up. Each day I add to the downside play. Primairly in the RYVNX as it is the most volatile.

RYTPX 500 -2x
RYVNX QQQ -2x
RYCWX DIA -2X

My portfolio looks like this at the moment:
Cash 14%
Double inverse bear market funds, primairly RYVNX 6%
Double inverse bear USDollar funds, RYWBX 5%
Mutual Funds 17%
Stocks 57%

In the stock and mutual funds, there is a heavy weighting to oil, natural gas, gold, uranium, silver, and biotech. Two of the mutual funds have the ability to go short the market.

In some respects my portfolio could be viewed as being closer to a 25% or greater cash position.

This years gains, have exceeded last years and I want to protect some, but conitnue to participate in the rally, if it continues.

Unlike many, the future of the market seems very unclear to me so far! Therefore, I must play the cards I see or FEEL. I am not at all sure I have objective data for the moves.

Best of luck to you!

As always do your own due diligence and make your own decisions. No one knows for certain what tomorrow will bring. Only you can be responsible for your own decisions. I may hold bullish and/or bearish positions without warning and these may change without warning. This is only a small part of my investment portfolio.

Report Card and a Little Action

I have been very busy with other things and have found little time to post. I have been doing some trading of the Rydex equity funds.

From November 15th to the end of the year, I had a gain of 8.58% for my Rydex equity strategy. This gives me a gain of 52% for the Strategy for 2005. This is only a small part of my portfolio. I started 2006 by going to a 3.86% loss on the Rydex trading strategy.

Going into yesterday, I had moved completely out of the Rydex bullish funds and was 100% in the bearish funds. I had committed to adding to the bearish fund until the market broke or I could withstand no more pain.

On yesterday's drop, which in my opinion moved a number of indexes near support, whtich I think has some strength, I moved to an 80% bullish, 20% bearish posture at the end of the day on the 18th. After the recovery today, I added to my RYVNX position to start moving back to a neutral posture.

It is my intend, unless the market convincingly breaks through the highs, to gradually shift back to a bearish position over a few days. I am very unsure whether the market can find the strength to breakout.

The only good news, is there is so so much bad news out there and the market is holding up well.

As for my Rydex funds, I am very near being profitable for the year. Other than the Rydex funds, I am having a spectacular year and am close to surpassing last years gains.

Unlike many, the future of the market seems very unclear to me so far! Therefore, I must play the cards I sse.

Best of luck to you!

As always do your own due diligence and make your own decisions. No one knows for certain what tomorrow will bring. Only you can be responsible for your own decisions. I may hold bullish and/or bearish positions without warning and these may change without warning. This is only a small part of my investment portfolio.

A break in the uptrend. It had to happen, now what

I really am to busy to know now what! The first bit of a pullback may be constructive for prep for a move higher. But it can roll over so quick from there to being downright nasty.

I have moved totally out of the RYTNX and RYCVX. Moved into their bear market counterparts. At mose I have 28% in RYVYX with the 72% in RYVNX,

Time will tell, if this is a serious downward move or just a reaction to some overly strong gains.

Little will surprise me.

As always do your own due diligence and make your own decisions. No one knows for certain what tomorrow will bring. Only you can be responsible for your own decisions. I may hold bullish and/or bearish positions without warning and these may change without warning. This is only a small part of my investment portfolio.

the market keeps acting like all systems go

and the hair on the back of my neck doesn't like it!

I am bit of a contrarian. I am shifting more and more into the bear market side, even though it is a losing position. Only a few percnet of my portfolio. I don't have time to give %'s of where I am at.

The gains on the rest overshadow this position I am preparing for a correction some day. We will see what I do when this position starts to feel painful. I have felt that pain before, but smiled when the correction arrived.

I have no reason to think or act like a correction could happen at any time. I wouldn't be surprised to seem momentum carry us higher, possibly much higher.

As always do your own due diligence and make your own decisions. No one knows for certain what tomorrow will bring. Only you can be responsible for your own decisions. I may hold bullish and/or bearish positions without warning and these may change without warning. This is only a small part of my investment portfolio.

All I can say is WOW!!!!!!!

An impressive start to the year!

These are 2 charts I look at when thinking about where the market is going. NYA
As I look at this second chart, Record High NYA
I observe that when the record high's drop below 20, there is usually a sustained period of record highs. In the November rally, we didn't get that reward, even though it was a good rally. Therefore, I wonder if the rally really has more to go? There will be rough spots though.

Looking at the NYA, the 4 day rally of 3.6% is the 278 highest of 10068 periods examined. Six gains in that period exceeded 10%. Ninety gains in that period exceeded 5%. So this years gains to date are not in "Never Never Land!"

Four day NYA gains greater than 2.44% and between Jan 3 and Jan 10th: 1967-3%, 1973-2.7%, 1974-2.6%, 1975-6.4%. 1976-4.5%, 1979-3.3%, 1980-3.9%, 1983-4.9%, 1984-2.7%, 1985-2.7%, 1987-5.7%, 1988-5.7%, 1990-2.7%, 1992-3%, 1999-2.8%, 2000-4.5%, 2003-5.4%, 2006-3.6%

Looking at how the month of January and the year performed in these cases:
2003 month - bad, year - very good,
2000 month - very bad, year - very good, wild year,
99 month - very good, year - very good,
92 month - bad, year - good,
90 month - very bad, year - bad, wild year,
88 month - very good, year - very good,
87 month - very good, year - neutral wild year,
85 month - very good, year - very good,
84 month - neutral, year - neutral,
83 month - very good, year - very good,
80 month - very good, year - very good,
79 month - very good, year - very good,
76 month - very good, year - good,
75 month - very good, year - very good,
74 month - very bad, year - very bad,
73 month - very bad, year - very bad,
67 month - very good, year - very good,

If the Fed should give a hint that it is not near through, the apple cart could easily be tipped. We are also at the beginnings of earnings season and it can always bring surprises. Things levered positively to oil, gas, coal may have some nice upside surprises. But energy dependent industries could provide challenges. The question there is how much hedging was in place?

We just had the Consumer Electronic Show to pump up that industry. Now comes Macworld, the auto show, and the homebuilders show. There are lots of cash rich balance sheets that could drive some continued M&A plus stock buybacks. But companies are adding pension accounting and stock option expensing into the reports. I just read the EMR - Emerson Electric report and was impressed with how they dealt with the pension accounting. Of course we will have some more surprises as companies tangle with their accountants and the Sarbanes Oxley morass.

Furthermore we have Iran, Israel, Washington corruption, Iraq, oil, gas, and avian flu among the wild cards.

We do live in interesting times!

My current Rydex position is, after shifting to a slightly bearish posture tonight:

25% - DIA: RYCWX (2v) 65%, RYCVX (2^) 35%
25% - S&P: RYTPX (2v) 40%, RYTNX (2^) 60%
50% - QQQQ: RYVNX (2v) 60%, RYVYX (2^) 40%

The S&P is the result of a mistake, that has worked well for me last couple days, but I will be shifting it more bearish. I think there is a chance market can go up, but I am cautious. This is a small part of a portfolio and is intended to provide some downside protection and at times to capture upside gains.

To show what this means, 25% the proportion of the Rydex equity funds I have leveraged to the Diamonds.

RYCWX, the 2v is my shorthand to show this fund will GO UP TWICE AS FAST AS THE DIA GOES DOWN! 65% the proportion of the 32% leveraged to the BEARISH side.

RYCVX, the 2^ is my shorthand to show this fund will GO UP TWICE AS FAST AS THE DIA GOES UP! 35% the proportion of the 32% leveraged to the BULLISH side.


As always do your own due diligence and make your own decisions. No one knows for certain what tomorrow will bring. Only you can be responsible for your own decisions. I may hold bullish and/or bearish positions without warning and these may change without warning. This is only a small part of my investment portfolio.

Fed and Retail

I think we are going to make another run at Dow 11k. Therefore I have moved to about a 70% bullish posture. I had hoped to have a couple down days, but I am not going to get one today.

Unclear how much legs the rally really has. They might fall out tommorrow, but I don't want to be left behind.

Whiplash in effect.

The market seems to like the Fed notes. Heard something about strong retail. Plus this week we have CES, which could boost technology.

As always do your own due diligence and make your own decisions. No one knows for certain what tomorrow will bring. Only you can be responsible for your own decisions. I may hold bullish and/or bearish positions without warning and these may change without warning.